'CAPIA' PROJECT OVERVIEW

Intended results and benefits

• The nature of the project implies that a project team comprising members from the various SADC countries, has the potential for facilitating science and technology co-operation in the region;
• The outputs of this project will provide a sound understanding of ambient concentrations of selected air pollutants in the four countries. Such information allows informed decision making in issues such as the importation of electrical power, development of major industry and regional impact on global climate change;
• Information on the ambient concentrations of pollutants and their potential impacts is a key input to understanding atmospheric pollution as a major component of the state of the environment reporting;
• This project will provide a basis to quantify the impact of air pollution from sources within a country's borders, and from sources from neighbouring countries on their respective economies and the economy of the region;
• The project will also provide inputs to downstream projects on the likely impacts on human health and ecosystems within the region;
• The project may provide information for air quality management in the region and aid in the formulation of regional policies in environmental management.

Project rationale

This project aims to build on previous and current work (SAFARI 2000) to quantify cross border air pollution in the SADC region and its impacts on agriculture in selected countries.

Industrial activity on the South African highveld and the extensive mining and associated activities in the copper belt region of northern Zambia make these two regions significant source areas for atmospheric pollutants in the SADC region. The prevailing meteorology over the region results in large-scale re-circulation of pollutants over the subcontinent and prolonged residence times. The SAFARI 2000 project will focus on quantifying the dispersion and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen, but will not consider secondary pollutants. Ozone, a highly reactive pollutant, is produced under sunny conditions in the presence of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides. Ozone results in photochemical smog (brown haze) that reduces visibility and has impacts on human health, vegetation, and many materials.

A recent study on the potential impact of gaseous pollutants on vegetation in South Africa has identified areas where the productivity of sensitive agricultural crops may be reduced because of air pollution. Levels of ozone and sulphur dioxide are approaching concentrations where crop production may be reduced by as much as 10%. In countries where food security is frequently threatened by drought, such reductions in economically important crops could have dramatic economic and social consequences.

PROJECT DESCRIPTION

The focus of the proposed project will be on Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and South Africa for three reasons:

• These countries are the greatest producers of industrial emissions in the region.
• The agricultural sector in each of these countries is an important component of the national and regional economy.
• Strong links already exist with scientists in these countries.

Pollutant emissions and meteorological data will be input to a regional-scale atmospheric photochemical and transport model that will quantify the ambient concentrations and deposition rates of various pollutants. The quantification and distribution of ozone in particular will be a valuable output of the model. Emissions information for sulphur, nitrogen and hydrocarbon compounds will be captured within the ambit of SAFARI 2000, verification of the information will be necessary in the focus countries. An emissions calculation manual that has been completed for North Asia by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) can be applied and tested in the southern African context in the context of the Swedish International Development Co-operation Agency (Sida) funded Air Pollution Information Network Africa (APINA) initiative. It is envisaged that the APINA representatives will also play a role in validation of the model output by monitoring ambient concentrations and deposition of pollutants with passive samplers.

Commercially important crops and subsistence crops, will be the receptors of interest. The critical loads approach used in European countries will be adapted to local circumstances. The likely reduction in crop production due to air pollution will be estimated, and will feed into estimates of the impact on commercial farmers or on rural populations that rely primarily on self-grown foodstuffs. Finally, all this information will be used as input to quantify the impacts of cross border air pollution on the agricultural economy of each of the four participating SADC countries.